Perspective of the pv development in the world

While the EU dominated the global market for photovoltaics in recent years, and perhaps this dominance will continue, the rest of the world market has clearly the largest growth potential. Photovoltaics is important both for the economy and the environment. It is also a balanced solution to the demand for energy in the "Sunbelt" countries, located around the equator. Considering local and global demand for energy, the fastest growth in PV is still expected in China and India, and next in South-East Asia, Latin America and MENA countries ("Middle East and North Africa").

The potential of photovoltaics in the Sunbelt countries could range from 60 to 250 GW in 2020 and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030, representing 27% to 58% of the world predictions for the size of the total installed capacity in that period. Although it is a small value compared to the value obtained in the EU, the rest of the world is counting on 3 GW value of photovoltaic market. Japan and the United States moved closer to 1 GW in 2010 and it is expected that these markets will continue to grow in 2011 (although the situation in Japan may change or growth of the PV market may slow down). Besides above mentioned countries phtotovoltaics is growing rapidly in Australia, Canada and China (although it is difficult to estimate the real rate of growth in this country). The total installed capacity shows a lot of contrasts. The development of individual markets outside of Japan and the United States is still negligible comparing to the two other countries.

Countries outside the EU should take advantage of the expecting situation of low or even negative growth in the EU in the coming years. Photovoltaic market in these countries in 2011-2012 may provide the conditions for sustainable growth in the global PV market by 2015 and beyond.

In recent years, policy-driven scenario turned out to be one of the most accurate, although it is difficult to rule out any stagnation or decline in 2011.
The speed at which political decisions are taken in 2010 and early 2011 indicate that the photovoltaic market will be driven by a system of incentives, to achieve competitiveness in all market segments in particular countries.
Forecast of development of the global photovoltaics market determine that the expected total installed capacity by the year 2015 will reach between 131 and 196 GW depending on the scenario in question. However, the value of 100 GW could be reached as early as 2013.
The balance in the development of photovoltaics in the world can be quickly achieved in the coming years, assuming that the EU will cover less than 40% of the world market in 2015 in the moderate scenario, and about 45% in the policy-driven scenario. Although the year 2010 has not shown any signs of such a change, the rest of the world, particularly Asia, can be a fertile market for photovoltaics in the coming years. In terms of installed capacity, the EU, however, can maintain its dominance in the next decade.

Beneath - the evolution of the global total installed capacity in the years 2010 - 2015 (MW), a moderate scenario.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China 0,893 1,643 3,143 5,143 7,643 10,64
APEC countries  1,191 1,605 2,347  3,274 4,577  6,089 
Rest of the world  1,844 2,644  4,744  6,144  8,144   10,144
North America 2,727 4,477  7,627  12,227  17,677  24,177 
Japan 3,622  4,672  5,922  7,422  9,172  11,172 
EU 29,252 37,817  44,812  52,222  60,072  68,992 
Total  39,531 52,930  68,175  86,415  107,300  131,255